Zugzwang

Manabesh Kar, CFA
2 min readMar 5, 2023

Zugzwang, a term deeply ingrained in the annals of German history and popularized within the global chess community, is an exquisite concept that encapsulates a delicate balance. It refers to a state of equilibrium in a game where any move made by a player puts them at an immediate disadvantage, tipping the scales in favor of their opponent. The slightest misstep or miscalculation can have catastrophic consequences. This seemingly innocuous concept has found relevance in today’s financial markets, where investors are often forced to make difficult decisions, and the pressure to make a move could create a zugzwang-like situation.

Zugzwang in chess ( Whoever makes the move, loses)

The interplay between zugzwang and decision paradox in the financial markets can be a challenging one, where conflicting information and priorities can create a state of inertia. The current high-interest-rate environment is a prime example of such a situation, where traditional investment options such as stocks and bonds offer potential lower returns, while holding onto cash provides a sense of certainty and stability that is invaluable. With a generational high return of 5%, cash is no longer a stagnant asset but now comes with a very solid return on investment.

Moreover, holding onto cash is an advantage for investors with no knowledge of complex financial instruments, as it is a simple and straightforward option that requires no specialized knowledge or expertise, unlike…

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Manabesh Kar, CFA

Macro derivatives trader, ex Morgan Stanley , ex BNP options trader, crypto enthusiast | Views are personal , no investment advice